Florence will be a long, drawn out process as pattern changes around it

The news regarding hurricane Florence is not good this morning. Satellite images show that it is gradually getting better defined and is likely strengthening as forecast. It continues to move off to the WNW towards the Southeast United States; swells are already impacting the coast.

Over the next 24 hours or so, the far outer bands will begin to reach the Outer Banks and will spread westward, bringing periods of heavy rain and an increase in the wind. The waves will get larger and larger with overwash becoming more common with each high tide cycle.

By 48 hours out, hurricane conditions are likely across portions of eastern North Carolina, with blinding rain, storm surge and down trees, etc. becoming an increasing hazard. Power outages will begin and could last for several days across the region.

All of these impacts will gradually spread across the eastern and southeastern portions of North Carolina, eventually moving into northeast South Carolina. The rain will accumulate to record levels; it’s almost a certainty. Flash flooding (rapid rise in water levels due to freshwater) and river flooding will become a bigger and bigger issue, stranding people and flooding out homes and businesses. This will only get worse as time passes because Florence is forecast to slow down to almost a crawl.

The reason behind the slowdown is fairly simple. The large ridge of high pressure pushing on Florence now will weaken as it is being replaced by another ridge of high pressure which is farther west essentially. So instead of Florence being turned out to sea by an approaching cold front or trough, it will simply be waiting for another large dome of air to move it along, like an inflating balloon pushing on another inflated balloon.

Unfortunately, it appears that this will happen just as Florence is nearing the coast. It is possible that the center crosses land but if it doesn’t and remains just offshore over the Gulf Stream, then the set up is in place for an epic disaster the likes of which the Carolinas have never seen.

The constant pounding of the coast by wind and surge will be incredibly destructive. Each high tide cycle will bring a new round of flooding and damage to property. Many homes will topple into the ocean.

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